Statistically downscaled scenarios of projected maximum temperature change

Statistically downscaled scenarios of projected maximum temperature change Statistically downscaled multi-model ensembles of projected change (also known as anomalies) in maximum temperature (°C) are available at a 10km spatial resolution for 1951-2100. Statistically downscaled ensembles are based on output from twenty-four Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models (GCM). Daily maximum temperature from GCM outputs were downscaled using the Bias Correction/Constructed Analogues with Quantile mapping version 2 (BCCAQv2). A historical gridded maximum temperature dataset of Canada (ANUSPLIN) was used as the downscaling target. Projected change in maximum temperature (°C) is with respect to the reference period of 1986-2005. Seasonal and annual averages of projected maximum temperature change to 1986-2005 are provided. Specifically, the 5th, 25th, 50th, 75th and 95th percentiles of the downscaled ensembles of maximum temperature change are available for the historical time period, 1901-2005, and for emission scenarios, RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, for 2006-2100. Twenty-year average changes in statistically downscaled maximum temperature (°C) for four time periods (2021-2040; 2041-2060; 2061-2080; 2081-2100), with respect to the reference period of 1986-2005, for RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 are also available in a range of formats. The median projected change across the ensemble of downscaled CMIP5 climate models is provided. Note: Projections among climate models can vary because of differences in their underlying representation of earth system processes. Thus, the use of a multi-model ensemble approach has been demonstrated in recent scientific literature to likely provide better projected climate change information. 2022-02-22 Environment and Climate Change Canada ec.ccds.info-info.dscc.ec@canada.ca Nature and EnvironmentScience and TechnologyWeather and ClimateProvide Climate Information Products and ServicesExpand Scientific Knowledge for Climate Monitoring and PredictionNational (CA)ClimateClimate change View Data MartHTML https://dd.weather.gc.ca/climate/dcs View Data MartHTML https://dd.meteo.gc.ca/climate/dcs Climate Data ViewerHTML https://climate-viewer.canada.ca/climate-maps.html Climate Data ViewerHTML https://visualiseur-climatique.canada.ca/cartes-climatiques.html Climate Data Extraction ToolHTML https://climate-change.canada.ca/climate-data/#/downscaled-data GeoMet WMS (EN)WMS https://geo.weather.gc.ca/geomet-climate?service=WMS&version=1.3.0&request=GetCapabilities GeoMet WMS (FR)WMS https://geo.weather.gc.ca/geomet-climate?lang=fr&service=WMS&version=1.3.0&request=GetCapabilities GeoMet WCS (EN)GeoTIF https://geo.weather.gc.ca/geomet-climate?service=WCS&version=2.0.1&request=GetCapabilities GeoMet WCS (FR)GeoTIF https://geo.weather.gc.ca/geomet-climate?lang=fr&service=WCS&version=2.0.1&request=GetCapabilities Canadian Climate Data and Scenarios ENNetCDF https://climate-scenarios.canada.ca/index.php?page=main Canadian Climate Data and Scenarios FRNetCDF https://scenarios-climatiques.canada.ca/index.php?page=main Data Collection MethodologyPDF http://data.ec.gc.ca/data/climate/scientificknowledge/statistically-downscaled-scenarios-of-projected-maximum-temperature-change/Downscaled_-_READ_ME_Technical_Doc_EN.pdf Data Collection MethodologyPDF http://data.ec.gc.ca/data/climate/scientificknowledge/statistically-downscaled-scenarios-of-projected-maximum-temperature-change/Downscaled_-_READ_ME_Technical_Doc_FR.pdf View ECCC Data Mart (English)HTML http://data.ec.gc.ca/data/climate/scientificknowledge/statistically-downscaled-scenarios-of-projected-maximum-temperature-change View ECCC Data Mart (French)HTML http://data.ec.gc.ca/data/climate/scientificknowledge/statistically-downscaled-scenarios-of-projected-maximum-temperature-change?lang=fr

Statistically downscaled multi-model ensembles of projected change (also known as anomalies) in maximum temperature (°C) are available at a 10km spatial resolution for 1951-2100. Statistically downscaled ensembles are based on output from twenty-four Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models (GCM). Daily maximum temperature from GCM outputs were downscaled using the Bias Correction/Constructed Analogues with Quantile mapping version 2 (BCCAQv2). A historical gridded maximum temperature dataset of Canada (ANUSPLIN) was used as the downscaling target.

Projected change in maximum temperature (°C) is with respect to the reference period of 1986-2005. Seasonal and annual averages of projected maximum temperature change to 1986-2005 are provided. Specifically, the 5th, 25th, 50th, 75th and 95th percentiles of the downscaled ensembles of maximum temperature change are available for the historical time period, 1901-2005, and for emission scenarios, RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, for 2006-2100.

Twenty-year average changes in statistically downscaled maximum temperature (°C) for four time periods (2021-2040; 2041-2060; 2061-2080; 2081-2100), with respect to the reference period of 1986-2005, for RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 are also available in a range of formats. The median projected change across the ensemble of downscaled CMIP5 climate models is provided.

Note: Projections among climate models can vary because of differences in their underlying representation of earth system processes. Thus, the use of a multi-model ensemble approach has been demonstrated in recent scientific literature to likely provide better projected climate change information.

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