Statistically downscaled scenarios of projected maximum temperature change
Statistically downscaled multi-model ensembles of projected change (also known as anomalies) in maximum temperature (°C) are available at a 10km spatial resolution for 1951-2100. Statistically downscaled ensembles are based on output from twenty-four Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models (GCM). Daily maximum temperature from GCM outputs were downscaled using the Bias Correction/Constructed Analogues with Quantile mapping version 2 (BCCAQv2). A historical gridded maximum temperature dataset of Canada (ANUSPLIN) was used as the downscaling target.
Projected change in maximum temperature (°C) is with respect to the reference period of 1986-2005. Seasonal and annual averages of projected maximum temperature change to 1986-2005 are provided. Specifically, the 5th, 25th, 50th, 75th and 95th percentiles of the downscaled ensembles of maximum temperature change are available for the historical time period, 1901-2005, and for emission scenarios, RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, for 2006-2100.
Twenty-year average changes in statistically downscaled maximum temperature (°C) for four time periods (2021-2040; 2041-2060; 2061-2080; 2081-2100), with respect to the reference period of 1986-2005, for RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 are also available in a range of formats. The median projected change across the ensemble of downscaled CMIP5 climate models is provided.
Note: Projections among climate models can vary because of differences in their underlying representation of earth system processes. Thus, the use of a multi-model ensemble approach has been demonstrated in recent scientific literature to likely provide better projected climate change information.
- Publisher - Current Organization Name: Environment and Climate Change Canada
- Licence: Open Government Licence - Canada
Data and Resources
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View Data MartHTMLEnglish dataset HTML
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View Data MartHTMLFrench dataset HTML
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Climate Data ViewerHTMLEnglish application HTML
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Climate Data ViewerHTMLFrench application HTML
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Climate Data Extraction ToolHTMLEnglish French application HTML
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GeoMet WMS (EN)WMSEnglish web_service WMS
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GeoMet WMS (FR)WMSFrench web_service WMS
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GeoMet WCS (EN)GeoTIFEnglish web_service GeoTIF
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GeoMet WCS (FR)GeoTIFFrench web_service GeoTIF
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Canadian Climate Data and Scenarios ENNetCDFEnglish application NetCDF
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Canadian Climate Data and Scenarios FRNetCDFFrench application NetCDF
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Data Collection MethodologyPDFEnglish guide PDF
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Data Collection MethodologyPDFFrench guide PDF
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View ECCC Data Mart (English)HTMLEnglish web_service HTML
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View ECCC Data Mart (French)HTMLFrench web_service HTML