Global Ensemble Prediction System

Global Ensemble Prediction System The Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEPS) carries out physics calculations to arrive at probabilistic predictions of atmospheric elements from the current day out to 16 days into the future (up to 32 days once a week on Thursdays at 00UTC). The GEPS produces different outlooks (scenarios) to estimate the forecast uncertainties due to the nonlinear (chaotic) behaviour of the atmosphere. The probabilistic predictions are based on an ensemble of 20 scenarios that differ in their initial conditions, their physics parameters which are randomly perturbed by a Stochastic Parameter Perturbation (SPP) method, and the stochastic perturbations (kinetic energy). A control member that is not perturbed is also available. Weather elements include temperature, precipitation, cloud cover, wind speed and direction, humidity and others. This product contains raw numerical results of these calculations. Geographical coverage is global. The horizontal resolution of the system is 0.35 degree (about 39 km at equator). The system has 84 vertical levels for the forecasts and for the analyses. Predictions are performed twice a day. 2024-04-11 Environment and Climate Change Canada ECWeather-Meteo@ec.gc.ca Nature and EnvironmentScience and TechnologyProbabilistic predictionsGlobalEnsemblePrecipitationWeather forecastsHumidityAir temperatureWindMeteorological dataSnowWeather and ClimateProvide Weather Information Products and ServicesDeliver Weather Products and Services to ClientsMeteorological Service of CanadaWeather and Environmental OperationsUnclassifiedInternational MSC DatamartGRIB2 https://dd.weather.gc.ca/ensemble/geps/ MSC DatamartGRIB2 https://dd.meteo.gc.ca/ensemble/geps/ MSC Datamart AMQPGRIB2 amqps://dd.weather.gc.ca/ensemble.geps.# MSC Datamart AMQPGRIB2 amqps://dd.meteo.gc.ca/ensemble.geps.# GEPS.DIAG.24_PRMM.ERGE1 - Quantity of precipitation >= 1 mm [probability %]WMS https://geo.weather.gc.ca/geomet?lang=en&service=WMS&request=GetCapabilities&layers=GEPS.DIAG.24_PRMM.ERGE1 GEPS.DIAG.24_PRMM.ERGE1 - Quantity of precipitation >= 1 mm [probability %]WMS https://geo.meteo.gc.ca/geomet?lang=fr&service=WMS&request=GetCapabilities&layers=GEPS.DIAG.24_PRMM.ERGE1 MSC Open Data documentationHTML https://eccc-msc.github.io/open-data/msc-data/nwp_geps/readme_geps_en/ MSC Open Data documentationHTML https://eccc-msc.github.io/open-data/msc-data/nwp_geps/readme_geps_fr/

The Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEPS) carries out physics calculations to arrive at probabilistic predictions of atmospheric elements from the current day out to 16 days into the future (up to 32 days once a week on Thursdays at 00UTC). The GEPS produces different outlooks (scenarios) to estimate the forecast uncertainties due to the nonlinear (chaotic) behaviour of the atmosphere. The probabilistic predictions are based on an ensemble of 20 scenarios that differ in their initial conditions, their physics parameters which are randomly perturbed by a Stochastic Parameter Perturbation (SPP) method, and the stochastic perturbations (kinetic energy). A control member that is not perturbed is also available. Weather elements include temperature, precipitation, cloud cover, wind speed and direction, humidity and others. This product contains raw numerical results of these calculations. Geographical coverage is global. The horizontal resolution of the system is 0.35 degree (about 39 km at equator). The system has 84 vertical levels for the forecasts and for the analyses. Predictions are performed twice a day.

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Contact Information

Delivery Point: 77 Westmorland Street, suite 260

City: Fredericton

Administrative Area: New Brunswick

Postal Code: E3B 6Z4

Country: Canada

Electronic Mail Address: ECWeather-Meteo@ec.gc.ca

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