Canada’s Energy Future 2023: Energy Supply and Demand Projections to 2050

Canada’s Energy Future 2023: Energy Supply and Demand Projections to 2050 Canada’s Energy Future 2023: Energy Supply and Demand Projections to 2050 (EF2023) is the latest long-term energy outlook from the Canada Energy Regulator (CER). The Canada’s Energy Future series explores how possible energy futures might unfold for Canadians over the long term. We use economic and energy models to explore how supply and demand for energy could evolve. EF2023 is the CER’s first long-term outlook that models scenarios where Canada reaches net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050. To model net-zero we begin with the end goal in mind: net-zero GHG emissions in 2050, and use our models to identify pathways to that point. This is a different approach compared to past versions of the report where we ran our models without restrictions, giving us insights into what a given premise meant for the future. EF2023 contains three scenarios. Two of these scenarios explore pathways where Canada achieves net-zero emissions by 2050. In the Global Net-zero Scenario, we assume Canada achieves net-zero emissions by 2050. We also assume the rest of the world reduces emissions enough to limit global warming to 1.5 Celsius (°C). In the Canada Net-zero Scenario, Canada also achieves net-zero emissions by 2050 but the rest of the world moves more slowly to reduce GHG emissions. The third scenario, the Current Measures Scenario, assumes limited action to reduce GHG emissions beyond measures in place today. In this scenario, we do not require our modeling results achieve net-zero GHG emissions in Canada by 2050. We also assume limited future global climate action. 2024-04-14 Canada Energy Regulator open-ouvert@tbs-sct.gc.ca Government and PoliticsEnergyElectricityGenerationEnergy demandNatural gas productionOil productionEnergy useEnergy productionEnergy demand by sectorEnergy use by fuelNet zeroCER propane-2023CSV https://www.cer-rec.gc.ca/open/energy/energyfutures2023/propane-2023.csv propane-2023CSV https://www.cer-rec.gc.ca/ouvert/energie/avenirenergetique2023/propane-2023.csv pentanes-plus-2023CSV https://www.cer-rec.gc.ca/open/energy/energyfutures2023/pentanes-plus-2023.csv pentane-plus-2023CSV https://www.cer-rec.gc.ca/ouvert/energie/avenirenergetique2023/pentane-plus-2023.csv natural-gas-production-2023CSV https://www.cer-rec.gc.ca/open/energy/energyfutures2023/natural-gas-production-2023.csv natural-gas-production-2023CSV https://www.cer-rec.gc.ca/ouvert/energie/avenirenergetique2023/production-de-gaz-naturel-2023.csv natural-gas-drilling-2023CSV https://www.cer-rec.gc.ca/open/energy/energyfutures2023/natural-gas-drilling-2023.csv natural-gas-drilling-2023CSV https://www.cer-rec.gc.ca/ouvert/energie/avenirenergetique2023/gaz-naturel-puits-fore-2023.csv macro-indicators-2023CSV https://www.cer-rec.gc.ca/open/energy/energyfutures2023/macro-indicators-2023.csv macro-indicators-2023CSV https://www.cer-rec.gc.ca/ouvert/energie/avenirenergetique2023/indicateurs-macroeconomiques-2023.csv hydrogen-production-2023CSV https://www.cer-rec.gc.ca/open/energy/energyfutures2023/hydrogen-production-2023.csv hydrogen-production-2023CSV https://www.cer-rec.gc.ca/ouvert/energie/avenirenergetique2023/production-d-hydrogene-2023.csv greenhouse-gas-emissions-2023CSV https://www.cer-rec.gc.ca/open/energy/energyfutures2023/greenhouse-gas-emissions-2023.csv greenhouse-gas-emissions-2023CSV https://www.cer-rec.gc.ca/ouvert/energie/avenirenergetique2023/emissions-de-ges-2023.csv ethane-2023CSV https://www.cer-rec.gc.ca/open/energy/energyfutures2023/ethane-2023.csv ethane-2023CSV https://www.cer-rec.gc.ca/ouvert/energie/avenirenergetique2023/ethane-2023.csv end-use-prices-2023CSV https://www.cer-rec.gc.ca/open/energy/energyfutures2023/end-use-prices-2023.csv end-use-prices-2023CSV https://www.cer-rec.gc.ca/ouvert/energie/avenirenergetique2023/prix-de-fin-d-utilisation-2023.csv end-use-demand-2023CSV https://www.cer-rec.gc.ca/open/energy/energyfutures2023/end-use-demand-2023.csv end-use-demand-2023CSV https://www.cer-rec.gc.ca/ouvert/energie/avenirenergetique2023/demande-finale-d-energie-2023.csv electricity-generation-2023CSV https://www.cer-rec.gc.ca/open/energy/energyfutures2023/electricity-generation-2023.csv electricity-generation-2023CSV https://www.cer-rec.gc.ca/ouvert/energie/avenirenergetique2023/generation-electricite-2023.csv electricity-capacity-2023CSV https://www.cer-rec.gc.ca/open/energy/energyfutures2023/electricity-capacity-2023.csv electricity-capacity-2023CSV https://www.cer-rec.gc.ca/ouvert/energie/avenirenergetique2023/capacite-d-electricite-2023.csv ef2023-data-dictionary.csvCSV https://www.cer-rec.gc.ca/open/energy/energyfutures2023/ef2023-data-dictionary.csv ef2023-data-dictionary.csvCSV https://www.cer-rec.gc.ca/ouvert/energie/avenirenergetique2023/ae2023-dictionnaire-de-donnees.csv crude-oil-production-2023CSV https://www.cer-rec.gc.ca/open/energy/energyfutures2023/crude-oil-production-2023.csv crude-oil-production-2023CSV https://www.cer-rec.gc.ca/ouvert/energie/avenirenergetique2023/production-de-petrole-brut-2023.csv butane-2023CSV https://www.cer-rec.gc.ca/open/energy/energyfutures2023/butane-2023.csv butane-2023CSV https://www.cer-rec.gc.ca/ouvert/energie/avenirenergetique2023/butanes-2023.csv benchmark-prices-2023CSV https://www.cer-rec.gc.ca/open/energy/energyfutures2023/benchmark-prices-2023.csv benchmark-prices-2023CSV https://www.cer-rec.gc.ca/ouvert/energie/avenirenergetique2023/prix-de-reference-2023.csv electricity-interchange-2023 CSV https://www.cer-rec.gc.ca/open/energy/energyfutures2023/electricity-interchange-2023.csv electricity-interchange-2023 CSV https://www.cer-rec.gc.ca/ouvert/energie/avenirenergetique2023/echange-electricite-2023.csv primary-demand-2023CSV https://www.cer-rec.gc.ca/open/energy/energyfutures2023/primary-demand-2023.csv primary-demand-2023CSV https://www.cer-rec.gc.ca/ouvert/energie/avenirenergetique2023/demande-d-energie-primaire-2023.csv electricity-generation-technology-2023CSV https://www.cer-rec.gc.ca/open/energy/energyfutures2023/electricity-generation-technology-2023.csv electricity-generation-technology-2023CSV https://www.cer-rec.gc.ca/ouvert/energie/avenirenergetique2023/technologies-de-generation-d-electricite-2023.csv electricity-capacity-technology-2023CSV https://www.cer-rec.gc.ca/open/energy/energyfutures2023/electricity-capacity-technology-2023.csv electricity-capacity-technology-2023CSV https://www.cer-rec.gc.ca/ouvert/energie/avenirenergetique2023/technologies-de-capacite-electrique-2023.csv

Canada’s Energy Future 2023: Energy Supply and Demand Projections to 2050 (EF2023) is the latest long-term energy outlook from the Canada Energy Regulator (CER). The Canada’s Energy Future series explores how possible energy futures might unfold for Canadians over the long term. We use economic and energy models to explore how supply and demand for energy could evolve. EF2023 is the CER’s first long-term outlook that models scenarios where Canada reaches net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050. To model net-zero we begin with the end goal in mind: net-zero GHG emissions in 2050, and use our models to identify pathways to that point. This is a different approach compared to past versions of the report where we ran our models without restrictions, giving us insights into what a given premise meant for the future. EF2023 contains three scenarios. Two of these scenarios explore pathways where Canada achieves net-zero emissions by 2050. In the Global Net-zero Scenario, we assume Canada achieves net-zero emissions by 2050. We also assume the rest of the world reduces emissions enough to limit global warming to 1.5 Celsius (°C). In the Canada Net-zero Scenario, Canada also achieves net-zero emissions by 2050 but the rest of the world moves more slowly to reduce GHG emissions. The third scenario, the Current Measures Scenario, assumes limited action to reduce GHG emissions beyond measures in place today. In this scenario, we do not require our modeling results achieve net-zero GHG emissions in Canada by 2050. We also assume limited future global climate action.

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