Statistically downscaled scenarios of projected mean temperature change

Statistically downscaled scenarios of projected mean temperature change Statistically downscaled multi-model ensembles of projected change (also known as anomalies) in mean temperature (°C) are available at a 10km spatial resolution for 1951-2100. Statistically downscaled ensembles are based on output from twenty-four Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models (GCM). Downscaled daily mean temperature was calculated by averaging downscaled daily minimum and maximum temperature. Daily minimum and maximum temperature from GCM outputs were downscaled using the Bias Correction/Constructed Analogues with Quantile mapping version 2 (BCCAQv2). Historical gridded minimum and maximum temperature datasets of Canada (ANUSPLIN) were used as the respective downscaling targets. Projected change in mean temperature (°C) is with respect to the reference period of 1986-2005. Seasonal and annual averages of projected mean temperature change to 1986-2005 are provided. Specifically, the 5th, 25th, 50th, 75th and 95th percentiles of the downscaled ensembles of mean temperature change are available for the historical time period, 1901-2005, and for emission scenarios, RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, for 2006-2100. Twenty-year average changes in statistically downscaled minimum mean temperature (°C) for four time periods (2021-2040; 2041-2060; 2061-2080; 2081-2100), with respect to the reference period of 1986-2005, for RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 are also available in a range of formats. The median projected change across the ensemble of downscaled CMIP5 climate models is provided. Note: Projections among climate models can vary because of differences in their underlying representation of earth system processes. Thus, the use of a multi-model ensemble approach has been demonstrated in recent scientific literature to likely provide better projected climate change information. 2022-02-22 Environment and Climate Change Canada ec.ccds.info-info.dscc.ec@canada.ca Nature and EnvironmentScience and TechnologyWeather and ClimateProvide Climate Information Products and ServicesExpand Scientific Knowledge for Climate Monitoring and PredictionNational (CA)ClimateClimate change View Data MartHTML https://dd.weather.gc.ca/climate/dcs View Data MartHTML https://dd.meteo.gc.ca/climate/dcs Climate Data ViewerHTML https://climate-viewer.canada.ca/climate-maps.html Climate Data ViewerHTML https://visualiseur-climatique.canada.ca/cartes-climatiques.html Climate Data Extraction ToolHTML https://climate-change.canada.ca/climate-data/#/downscaled-data GeoMet WMS (EN)WMS https://geo.weather.gc.ca/geomet-climate?service=WMS&version=1.3.0&request=GetCapabilities GeoMet WMS (FR)WMS https://geo.weather.gc.ca/geomet-climate?lang=fr&service=WMS&version=1.3.0&request=GetCapabilities GeoMet WCS (EN)GeoTIF https://geo.weather.gc.ca/geomet-climate?service=WCS&version=2.0.1&request=GetCapabilities GeoMet WCS (FR)GeoTIF https://geo.weather.gc.ca/geomet-climate?lang=fr&service=WCS&version=2.0.1&request=GetCapabilities Canadian Climate Data and Scenarios ENNetCDF https://climate-scenarios.canada.ca/index.php?page=main Canadian Climate Data and Scenarios FRNetCDF https://scenarios-climatiques.canada.ca/index.php?page=main Data Collection MethodologyPDF http://data.ec.gc.ca/data/climate/scientificknowledge/statistically-downscaled-scenarios-of-projected-mean-temperature-change/Downscaled_-_READ_ME_Technical_Doc_EN.pdf Data Collection MethodologyPDF http://data.ec.gc.ca/data/climate/scientificknowledge/statistically-downscaled-scenarios-of-projected-mean-temperature-change/Downscaled_-_READ_ME_Technical_Doc_FR.pdf View ECCC Data Mart (English)HTML http://data.ec.gc.ca/data/climate/scientificknowledge/statistically-downscaled-scenarios-of-projected-mean-temperature-change View ECCC Data Mart (French)HTML http://data.ec.gc.ca/data/climate/scientificknowledge/statistically-downscaled-scenarios-of-projected-mean-temperature-change?lang=fr

Statistically downscaled multi-model ensembles of projected change (also known as anomalies) in mean temperature (°C) are available at a 10km spatial resolution for 1951-2100. Statistically downscaled ensembles are based on output from twenty-four Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models (GCM). Downscaled daily mean temperature was calculated by averaging downscaled daily minimum and maximum temperature. Daily minimum and maximum temperature from GCM outputs were downscaled using the Bias Correction/Constructed Analogues with Quantile mapping version 2 (BCCAQv2). Historical gridded minimum and maximum temperature datasets of Canada (ANUSPLIN) were used as the respective downscaling targets.

Projected change in mean temperature (°C) is with respect to the reference period of 1986-2005. Seasonal and annual averages of projected mean temperature change to 1986-2005 are provided. Specifically, the 5th, 25th, 50th, 75th and 95th percentiles of the downscaled ensembles of mean temperature change are available for the historical time period, 1901-2005, and for emission scenarios, RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, for 2006-2100.

Twenty-year average changes in statistically downscaled minimum mean temperature (°C) for four time periods (2021-2040; 2041-2060; 2061-2080; 2081-2100), with respect to the reference period of 1986-2005, for RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 are also available in a range of formats. The median projected change across the ensemble of downscaled CMIP5 climate models is provided.

Note: Projections among climate models can vary because of differences in their underlying representation of earth system processes. Thus, the use of a multi-model ensemble approach has been demonstrated in recent scientific literature to likely provide better projected climate change information.

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