Statistically downscaled scenarios of projected mean temperature change
Statistically downscaled multi-model ensembles of projected change (also known as anomalies) in mean temperature (°C) are available at a 10km spatial resolution for 1951-2100. Statistically downscaled ensembles are based on output from twenty-four Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models (GCM). Downscaled daily mean temperature was calculated by averaging downscaled daily minimum and maximum temperature. Daily minimum and maximum temperature from GCM outputs were downscaled using the Bias Correction/Constructed Analogues with Quantile mapping version 2 (BCCAQv2). Historical gridded minimum and maximum temperature datasets of Canada (ANUSPLIN) were used as the respective downscaling targets.
Projected change in mean temperature (°C) is with respect to the reference period of 1986-2005. Seasonal and annual averages of projected mean temperature change to 1986-2005 are provided. Specifically, the 5th, 25th, 50th, 75th and 95th percentiles of the downscaled ensembles of mean temperature change are available for the historical time period, 1901-2005, and for emission scenarios, RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, for 2006-2100.
Twenty-year average changes in statistically downscaled minimum mean temperature (°C) for four time periods (2021-2040; 2041-2060; 2061-2080; 2081-2100), with respect to the reference period of 1986-2005, for RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 are also available in a range of formats. The median projected change across the ensemble of downscaled CMIP5 climate models is provided.
Note: Projections among climate models can vary because of differences in their underlying representation of earth system processes. Thus, the use of a multi-model ensemble approach has been demonstrated in recent scientific literature to likely provide better projected climate change information.
- Publisher - Current Organization Name: Environment and Climate Change Canada
- Licence: Open Government Licence - Canada
Data and Resources
View Data MartHTMLEnglish dataset HTML
View Data MartHTMLFrench dataset HTML
Climate Data ViewerHTMLEnglish application HTML
Climate Data ViewerHTMLFrench application HTML
Climate Data Extraction ToolHTMLEnglish French application HTML
GeoMet WMS (EN)WMSEnglish web_service WMS
GeoMet WMS (FR)WMSFrench web_service WMS
GeoMet WCS (EN)GeoTIFEnglish web_service GeoTIF
GeoMet WCS (FR)GeoTIFFrench web_service GeoTIF
Canadian Climate Data and Scenarios ENNetCDFEnglish application NetCDF
Canadian Climate Data and Scenarios FRNetCDFFrench application NetCDF
Data Collection MethodologyPDFEnglish guide PDF
Data Collection MethodologyPDFFrench guide PDF
View ECCC Data Mart (English)HTMLEnglish web_service HTML
View ECCC Data Mart (French)HTMLFrench web_service HTML
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