The Canadian Earth System Model Large Ensembles The CanESM2 large ensembles are 50-member perturbed initial condition ensembles from 1950 to 2020, with all historical forcings (historical), solar and volcanic forcings only (historicalNat), anthropogenic aerosols only (historicalMisc, p4), and ozone only (historicalMisc, p6). The model, forcings, variable names and file formats all follow those used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Each of the five members of the existing CMIP5 historical ensemble had conditions perturbed in 1950 ten times to produce a new ensemble of fifty simulations starting in 1950, and a similar procedure was applied to the natural, aerosol and ozone-only ensembles. Simulations were run to 2005 using CMIP5 historical forcings and then to 2020 using RCP 8.5 forcings. The CanESM2 large ensembles were proposed by the Canadian Sea Ice and Snow Evolution Network (CanSISE) Climate Change and Atmospheric Research (CCAR) Network project, which also coordinated much of the initial analysis of the large ensembles. Relevant publications: Description of the large ensembles: Kirchmeier-Young, M.C., F.W. Zwiers, and N.P. Gillett, 2017: Attribution of Extreme Events in Arctic Sea Ice Extent. J. Climate, 30, 553–571, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0412.1 Examples of applications of the large ensembles: Kirchmeier-Young, M.C., F.W. Zwiers, N.P. Gillett and A.J. Cannon, 2017: Attributing extreme fire risk in Western Canada to human emissions, Climatic Change, 1-15, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-017-2030-0 Gagné, M.-È., J. C. Fyfe, N. P. Gillett, I. V. Polyakov, and G. M. Flato, 2017: Aerosol-driven increase in Arctic sea ice over the middle of the twentieth century, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 7338–7346, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL071941 Gagné, M.-È., M. C. Kirchmeier-Young, N. P. Gillett, and J. C. Fyfe, 2017: Arctic sea ice response to the eruptions of Agung, El Chichón, and Pinatubo, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 122, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JD027038 Fyfe, J.C. , C. Derksen, L. Mudryk, G.M. Flato, B.D. Santer, N.C. Swart, N.P. Molotch, X. Zhang, H. Wan, V.K. Arora, J. Scinocca, 2017: Large near-term projected snowpack loss over the western United States, Nature Comm., 8:14996, https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms14996 2017-10-16 2018-05-16 Environment and Climate Change Canada open-ouvert@tbs-sct.gc.ca Nature and EnvironmentClimatelarge ensemblesearth system model CanESM2 Large Ensembles OutputNetCDF http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cccma/CanSISE/output/CCCma/CanESM2/ Data DictionaryPDF http://data.ec.gc.ca/data/climate/scientificknowledge/the-eccc-climate-model-datasets-for-climate-science-and-impacts-research/the-canadian-earth-system-model-large-ensembles/CanESM2-Large-Ensembles.pdf Data DictionaryPDF http://data.ec.gc.ca/data/climate/scientificknowledge/the-eccc-climate-model-datasets-for-climate-science-and-impacts-research/the-canadian-earth-system-model-large-ensembles/Grands-ensembles-du-CanESM2.pdf View ECCC Data Mart (English)HTML http://data.ec.gc.ca/data/climate/scientificknowledge/the-eccc-climate-model-datasets-for-climate-science-and-impacts-research/the-canadian-earth-system-model-large-ensembles View ECCC Data Mart (French)HTML http://data.ec.gc.ca/data/climate/scientificknowledge/the-eccc-climate-model-datasets-for-climate-science-and-impacts-research/the-canadian-earth-system-model-large-ensembles?lang=fr

The Canadian Earth System Model Large Ensembles

The CanESM2 large ensembles are 50-member perturbed initial condition ensembles from 1950 to 2020, with all historical forcings (historical), solar and volcanic forcings only (historicalNat), anthropogenic aerosols only (historicalMisc, p4), and ozone only (historicalMisc, p6). The model, forcings, variable names and file formats all follow those used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Each of the five members of the existing CMIP5 historical ensemble had conditions perturbed in 1950 ten times to produce a new ensemble of fifty simulations starting in 1950, and a similar procedure was applied to the natural, aerosol and ozone-only ensembles. Simulations were run to 2005 using CMIP5 historical forcings and then to 2020 using RCP 8.5 forcings. The CanESM2 large ensembles were proposed by the Canadian Sea Ice and Snow Evolution Network (CanSISE) Climate Change and Atmospheric Research (CCAR) Network project, which also coordinated much of the initial analysis of the large ensembles.

Relevant publications:

Description of the large ensembles:

Kirchmeier-Young, M.C., F.W. Zwiers, and N.P. Gillett, 2017: Attribution of Extreme Events in Arctic Sea Ice Extent. J. Climate, 30, 553–571, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0412.1

Examples of applications of the large ensembles:

Kirchmeier-Young, M.C., F.W. Zwiers, N.P. Gillett and A.J. Cannon, 2017: Attributing extreme fire risk in Western Canada to human emissions, Climatic Change, 1-15, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-017-2030-0

Gagné, M.-È., J. C. Fyfe, N. P. Gillett, I. V. Polyakov, and G. M. Flato, 2017: Aerosol-driven increase in Arctic sea ice over the middle of the twentieth century, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 7338–7346, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL071941

Gagné, M.-È., M. C. Kirchmeier-Young, N. P. Gillett, and J. C. Fyfe, 2017: Arctic sea ice response to the eruptions of Agung, El Chichón, and Pinatubo, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 122, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JD027038

Fyfe, J.C. , C. Derksen, L. Mudryk, G.M. Flato, B.D. Santer, N.C. Swart, N.P. Molotch, X. Zhang, H. Wan, V.K. Arora, J. Scinocca, 2017: Large near-term projected snowpack loss over the western United States, Nature Comm., 8:14996, https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms14996

Resources

Resource Name Resource Type Format Language Links
CanESM2 Large Ensembles Output Dataset NetCDF English
French
Access
Data Dictionary Terminology PDF English Access
Data Dictionary Terminology PDF French Access
View ECCC Data Mart (English) Dataset HTML English Access
View ECCC Data Mart (French) Dataset HTML French Access

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The ECCC Climate Model Datasets for Climate Science and Impacts Research Open Data English Access
The ECCC Climate Model Datasets for Climate Science and Impacts Research Open Data French Access